Data withheld over long weekend explains Indonesia’s drop in COVID-19 cases: Health Ministry

A case tracer in North Jakarta performing a swab test. Photo courtesy of Abimanyu
A case tracer in North Jakarta performing a swab test. Photo courtesy of Abimanyu

It looked like Indonesia finally saw the end of its first wave of the coronavirus outbreak with a recent significant decrease in new daily cases this week, but we shouldn’t get our hopes up just yet because the declining trend appears to be the result of an unhealthy mix of inefficiency and ineptitude.

In the first two days of November, Indonesia recorded 2,696 and 2,518 new cases, respectively — the first time the country went under the 3,000 daily count since new cases took off around mid-August. Indonesia regularly recorded over 4,000 cases daily in September and October.

With the recent decline being met with a degree of suspicion, the Health Ministry has all but confirmed that it was the result of an undercount caused by the Prophet Muhammad’s Birthday long weekend last week.

“We suspect that there are a number of specimens that have had their examinations delayed,” said Alexander Kaliaga Ginting Suka, a special staffer at the Health Ministry’s Development and Financing Department, referring mostly to test samples from provinces outside of Jakarta.

“So it’s not that the samples weren’t taken or sent, but it’s their reports that have been delayed.”

True enough, specimens tested during the long weekend dropped significantly to 34,317 on Oct. 29, 24,854 on Oct. 30, 29.001 on Oct. 31, 23,208 on Nov. 1, and 26,661 on Nov. 2. By comparison, 40,572 specimens were tested on Oct. 28.

November’s daily counts, therefore, may be misleading, especially considering that the positivity rate of those tested remain around 13 percent — slightly lower than the cumulative positivity rate since the outbreak began, which hovers between 14 and 15 percent.

Of course, the wise thing to do right now is to not be lured into a false sense of security with the dwindling daily count and observe health protocols at all times.

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