If the majority of polls about Indonesia’s upcoming presidential election are correct, challenger Prabowo Subianto has a huge electoral deficit to make up if he is to have any hope at the polls on April 17. Following the release of another recent survey showing the Gerindra chairman down 16% points (pointing to what the research group called a “comfortable victory” for President Joko Widodo) comes the latest data from well-known pollster Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI) showing the incumbent with an even larger electoral lead.
LSI has done monthly surveys on the two tickets’ electability and their latest data from February 18-25 shows Joko Widodo and his running mate Ma’ruf Amin being the pick of 58.7% of respondents compared to 30.9% for Prabowo and his running mate Sandiaga Uno.
“The majority of the community, when the survey was conducted, chose Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin at 58.7%. Prabowo-Sandi were in second place with a difference of around 28% or exactly 27.7% with 30.9%,” said senior LSI researcher Ardian Sopa at a press conference in Jakarta today as quoted by Detik.
The survey polled 1,200 respondents from across Indonesia who were selected using a multistage random sampling method and interviewed face-to-face by researchers.
LSI’s monthly polling data on the presidential election shows a steady rise in electability for Jokowi-Ma’ruf compared to electoral stagnation for Prabowo-Sandiaga. The pollster’s August data showed the incumbent being picked by 52.2% of respondents compared to 29.5% for Prabowo.
Previously, members of Prabowo’s camp have accused LSI and other survey groups like Populi Center of not being independent and accepting money to alter their results.
If that were true, than the majority of survey groups would also have to have been paid to similarly alter their results as they are, with one exception, broadly in agreement. Median is the only outlier and the only pollster to put Prabowo at less than 10% behind Jokowi.
Roy Morgan
Jokowi-Ma’ruf: 58%
Prabowo-Sandi: 42%
January
Celebes Research Center
Jokowi-Ma’ruf: 54.8%
Prabowo-Sandi: 31%
Undecided/other: 14.2%
Jan 23-31
Median
Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin: 47.9%
Prabowo-Sandiaga: 38.7%
Undecided voters: 13.4%
Jan 6-15
Charta Politika:
Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin: 53.2%
Prabowo-Sandiaga: 34.1%
Dec 22 – Jan 8
Y-Publica
Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin: 53.5%
Prabowo-Sandiaga: 31.9%
Dec 26 – Jan 8
Alvara Research Center
Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin: 54,3%
Prabowo-Sandiaga: 35,1%
Dec 11-24
Survei Indikator
Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin: 54.9%
Prabowo-Sandiaga: 34.8%
Dec 16-26
