It’s only 44 days until Indonesia’s national elections and, with few exceptions, the polls indicate that President Joko Widodo should easily defeat his two-time challenger, Prabowo Subianto, on April 17.
The newly released results of a poll from Australia-based research group Roy Morgan largely corresponds with that conclusion, enough so that the title of the research group’s press release says, “Jokowi set for comfortable victory in April Presidential Election”.
According to Roy Morgan’s poll, Jokowi has the support of 58% of Indonesian voters, well ahead of opponent Prabowo Subianto who was chosen by 42%.
The poll was conducted in January 2019 with 1,039 Indonesian correspondents of voting age throughout the country.
The press release notes that Jokowi’s support is higher in rural areas of the country while Prabowo is somewhat more competitive in urban areas including Jakarta and cities in West Java as well as South Sumatra. It also shows that women prefer Jokowi to Prabowo (61% to 39%) at higher rates compared to men (54% to 46%). The research group’s results also say the incumbent also enjoys higher levels of support among younger voters.
Comparing the results with another one of their surveys done prior to the 2014 presidential election, the research group showed that not only was Jokowi in a stronger electoral position than he was ahead of that year’s win, the president’s party, PDI-P, also enjoys much higher levels of support — 40.5% compared to 21.5% five years ago.
“The strong performance of the Indonesian economy over the last five years, and the exceptional confidence expressed by everyday Indonesians over the last year are certainly strong pointers to the success of President Jokowi’s political leadership heading towards the April Presidential Election,” Michele Levine, Roy Morgan’s CEO, is quoted as saying in the release.
For comparison, here are the results of a few other recent presidential surveys by Indonesian polling groups. Median is the only outlier and the only pollster to put Prabowo at less than 10% behind Jokowi.
Celebes Research Center
Jokowi-Ma’ruf: 54.8%
Prabowo-Sandi: 31%
Undecided/other: 14.2%
Jan 23-31
Median
Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin: 47.9%
Prabowo-Sandiaga: 38.7%
Undecided voters: 13.4%
Jan 6-15
Charta Politika:
Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin: 53.2%
Prabowo-Sandiaga: 34.1%
Dec 22 – Jan 8
Y-Publica
Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin: 53.5%
Prabowo-Sandiaga: 31.9%
Dec 26 – Jan 8
Alvara Research Center
Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin: 54,3%
Prabowo-Sandiaga: 35,1%
Dec 11-24
Survei Indikator
Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin: 54.9%
Prabowo-Sandiaga: 34.8%
Dec 16-26
