Just a month ago, Gerindra chairman Prabowo Subianto was widely considered the inevitable challenger to Indonesian President Joko Widodo in the 2019 election. But poor poll numbers, a pessimistic speech based on a sci-fi novel (i.e. the #GhostFleet fiasco), delayed announcements and even his own brother talking about all the factors that still need to be considered have made Prabowo’s presumptive candidacy seem less than certain recently.
Today we got what might be the strongest signal yet from a senior Gerindra official that their party chief may be taking a backseat in next year’s election. along with a strong suggestion about what the alternative to a Prabowo presidential ticket might be.
Speaking on the eve of his party’s national coordinating meeting on April 11 (where Prabowo had been expected to officially announce his candidacy, until he said he wouldn’t), Gerindra executive board chairman Desmond J Mahesa said Prabowo was still weighing the aspirations of the people including the possibility of focusing on his role as a “king maker” — a possibility that would, of course, preclude his own candidacy.
“There is no confusion for Pak Prabowo. In regards to challenging or not, we must see if Pak Prabowo will advance or position himself as a king maker,” Desmond said at the parliament building as quoted by Detik today.
“We are talking about political strategy and political calculations.We want to win, the principle is that we hope this time we are not defeated, considering there are now shirt everywhere saying ‘replace the president’,” Desmond added, referring to the reported proliferation of #GantiPresiden2019 t-shirts.
When asked who might take Prabowo’s place as Gerindra’s candidate, Desmond did not beat around the bush, saying the other figures being strongly considered were former Indonesian military commander Gatot Nurmantyo and Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan.
One Gerindra official previously claimed that Gatot had joined their party as a possible presidential candidate but Gatot quickly responded by saying that he had actually only been invited to join the party by Prabowo during a private meeting but that he had not yet made a decision. He has not yet committed to any party.
Anies Baswedan, currently an independent, has also been rumored to be a potential candidate though generally as a possible VP pick for Prabowo. He was formerly education minister under President Joko Widodo until being dismissed during a cabinet reshuffle. He later ran against former Jakarta Governor Basuki “Ahok” Tjahaja Purnama in the 2017 Jakarta gubernatorial race in which he received the backing of Gerindra and PKS, although most analysts credit the massive 212 anti-Ahok protests, organized by Islamic hardliners like the Islamic Defenders Front and their leader Rizieq Shihab, with assuring Anies’ election victory.
In recent surveys of potential 2019 presidential candidates, Prabowo has generally lagged behind Jokowi’s numbers by around 20-25% points, but other candidates, including Gatot and Anies, fair far worse, with numbers below 10%.
Of course, much can change before next year’s elections, but it seems difficult to imagine Gatot, Anies, or any combination of them with somebody besides Prabowo, being able to offer much of a challenge to the incumbent, who still enjoys generally high levels of voter satisfaction.
At any rate, presidential candidates are not required to officially declare their candidacies until August, so we may not be certain about the shape of the 2019 elections for quite some time yet.
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