Most analysts agree religious sentiment played a major role in the 2017 Jakarta gubernatorial election and many predicted the same would hold true in the upcoming presidential election in April. But that may not be the case, at least according to the latest survey carried out by pollster PolMark Indonesia.
In PolMark’s survey, which was released yesterday, 20.1% of respondents said the most important trait for a president and vice president is that they’re “clean and free from corruption”, followed by “being a good role model” (16%) and “close to the people” (12.7%). The only religious trait, “devout to worship” was only most important to 9.2% of respondents while “having a clear working plan” was most important to 8.4% of respondents.
Overall, like with every other survey for the presidential election, PolMark had President Joko Widodo in the lead over challenger Prabowo Subianto, with 40.4% to the latter’s 25.8%. However, PolMark’s survey is somewhat of an outlier in that it is one of only two recent surveys that doesn’t have Jokowi over the 50% mark and it has a far large percentage of undecided voters than most other surveys.
That said, it must be noted that PolMark’s survey was carried out in collaboration with the National Mandate Party (PAN), an Islamic-based party that forms part of the opposition coalition that backs Prabowo.
The survey was carried out from October 7, 2018 to February 12, 2019 involving 32,560 respondents from 73 electorates. PolMark says their survey has a margin of error of up to 4.8% and a confidence level of 95%.
Also yesterday, pollster Indonesia Survey Circle (LSI) released their own presidential election survey, putting Jokowi on top with a seemingly insurmountable 28% lead over Prabowo. With the exception of poll group Median, and now PolMark, most recent surveys signal that Prabowo has a Herculean task of beating Jokowi in the election, which is happening in just over a month’s time on April 17:
PolMark Indonesia
Jokowi-Ma’ruf: 40.4%
Prabowo-Sandi: 25.8%
October 2018-February 2019
LSI
Jokowi-Ma’ruf: 58.7%
Prabowo-Sandi: 30.9%
Feb 18-25
Roy Morgan
Jokowi-Ma’ruf: 58%
Prabowo-Sandi: 42%
January
Celebes Research Center
Jokowi-Ma’ruf: 54.8%
Prabowo-Sandi: 31%
Undecided/other: 14.2%
Jan 23-31
Median
Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin: 47.9%
Prabowo-Sandiaga: 38.7%
Undecided voters: 13.4%
Jan 6-15
Charta Politika
Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin: 53.2%
Prabowo-Sandiaga: 34.1%
Dec 22 – Jan 8
Y-Publica
Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin: 53.5%
Prabowo-Sandiaga: 31.9%
Dec 26 – Jan 8
Alvara Research Center
Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin: 54,3%
Prabowo-Sandiaga: 35,1%
Dec 11-24
Survei Indikator
Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin: 54.9%
Prabowo-Sandiaga: 34.8%
Dec 16-26
