Rainy season in Yangon last year. According to U Tun Lwin, this year is going to be wetter. PHOTO/COCONUTS MEDIA
April is the cruellest month – especially in Myanmar. At this time of year, the unpredictable weather brings brutal heat and sunshine one moment, wild storms the next. And everyone is wondering: when will the rains come?
Coconuts Yangon consulted U Tun Lwin, the weatherman who retired from the Department of Meteorology in 2009 after 45 years but continues to issues predictions for his more than 20,000 Facebook followers, for some answers.
You can check in with his forecasts (he’s predicting clear skies and sunshine again from Sunday) on his website or Facebook page.
What is going on with the weather in Myanmar right now?
This is the time we normally refer to as the pre-monsoon season, when the climate changes from summer to rainy season. The weather during this time is very unsettled. From the middle of April for about 45 days.
We normally observe the formation of Cumulonimbus clouds during this time. These clouds are thunderstorms, so they bring weather like lightning and heavy rain. At present we observe all of this, especially in the northern area of the country.
What causes all this crazy weather?
The pre-monsoon season is the transition period from summer to rainy season. So it is has the effects of both season. Because of the summer season, the land surface area is still very hot. But starting from the middle of April… the wind coming from the Bay of Bengal brings a lot of moisture into the country. The land surface is hot, and the above area is warm and moist. When these two things come together the weather is very unsettled.
How does that compare to recent years?
I think the situation has been getting worse since 2006. Probably this year is worse than last year.
So when will the rains come in full force?
It will be late. My prediction is that the onset of monsoon in the southern part of the country will be around May 20, and in Rangoon [Yangon] on May 25. For central Myanmar and the north it will be around June 1.
How bad to you think the rainy season will be? Last year it was comparatively light.
This year may be a little bit different. According to the seasonal forecast issued by a US organisation, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the rainfall until the end of May will be less than normal, especially in the southern part of the country. But from June to July and August the rain, especially in the southern part, will be above normal.
Why is that?
That is their prediction! I think that it may be true.
What general weather trends have you noticed in Myanmar over the past few years?
It’s very bad. I have noticed a lot of things. Number one is the monsoon climate already has changed dramatically. Onset is late, rainy season shorter… So that has a huge impact on the dry zone area.
What do you put that down to?
That is climate change. In the whole Southeast Asian region the climate has changed due to to the temperature rise. Myanmar will face a five degrees [Celsius] temperature rise over the next century.
