Myanmar’s Union Parliament on Monday dashed all hopes of a quick resolution to the whole presidential problem by announcing that nominations won’t go forth for more than a month.
We were expecting to wait a little while, but this is unbearable. Remember that the election happened in November.
The presidential date is March 17. More than a month away. On that day, presumably, the Upper House, the Lower House and military MPs will each nominate a candidate. Everyone will then vote. The winner becomes president. The losers each get to be vice-president.
What does the delay mean?
It probably has something to do with creating time for Aung San Suu Kyi and her party to negotiate some sort of deal. After the election landslide in November, Suu Kyi’s fellow lawmakers have enough seats to vote in the president, but the 2008 constitution blocks her from the post because she has foreign children.
Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy cannot change the constitution as the military holds enough seats (25 percent) to veto any proposed amendments.
There has been talk of temporarily suspending the clause about foreign family members, but no one has really explained how that would work.
In short, the NLD needs the military for this to happen, but there are conflicting reports of their willingness to cooperate. The Wall Street Journal’s latest story says there is resistance, but an article in the New York Times from a few days ago points towards some sort of compromise, as does a report published today (Monday) by the Associated Press.
And so it seems our groundbreaking analysis of the situation published last month remains relevant to this day.
