A new report shows that the population of Hong Kong’s labour force may start to decline in just two years’ time.
Economists at Morgan Stanley expect population growth of people aged 15 to 64 (the working age) in Hong Kong for the year 2015-2016 to be flat, before going into full-blown decline from 2017 onwards.
Over the past 10 years, Hong Kong has always posted positive changes in the size of its working population.
What’s even more worrying is that the projections are made under the assumption that migration into the city remains strong. What if people suddenly don’t know how awesome it is here?
Hong Kong’s low fertility rates and a rapidly ageing population also exacerbate the problems.
In terms of percentage of elderly dependants to the working group, Hong Kong has the second largest (35 percent) in the world, topped only by Japan.
By 2020, Morgan Stanley expects elderly dependency to rise to 42 percent.
A separate report by the Hong Kong government last year warned that an ageing population and a shrinking labour pool will stunt the city’s economic growth and put stress on government revenue.
According to Morgan Stanley, the shortages and higher labour costs will not only make Hong Kong a less attractive place to do business, but also hamper the population’s ability to respond to changing macroeconomic conditions.
So that’s it. Start hoarding supplies and planning your escape now.
Photo: Kevin Dharmawan
