Media giant Kompas today released the results of its presidential election poll, shedding insight on how people in Indonesia’s different regions and provinces might vote come April 17.
Nationally, Kompas, like in most other surveys carried out by pollsters in Indonesia, had President Joko Widodo and his running mate Ma’ruf Amin with a double-digit lead over challengers Prabowo Subianto and his running mate Sandiaga Uno, with 49.2% for the former and 37.4% for the latter. However, Kompas noted that Jokowi-Ma’ruf’s electability has decreased by 3.4% while Prabowo-Sandiaga’s increased by 4.7% since its last survey six months ago.
In what may come as a surprise to some, Prabowo-Sandiaga themselves scored a double-digit lead over Jokowi-Ma’ruf in Jakarta, 47.5% to 36.3%. Kompas says the gap between them has widened to 11.2% from 4.2% six months ago, which could be explained by Prabowo-Sandiaga’s “militant” supporters in the capital.
The survey says a similar story is playing out on the island of Sumatra, where Prabowo-Sandiaga (50.5%) has stretched their lead over Jokowi-Ma’ruf (37%) by 13.5% from 2.4% six months ago.
However, Jokowi-Ma’ruf are still winning — dominating, in many cases — practically everywhere else in the country. Regions where Jokowi-Ma’ruf are most dominant are the islands of West Nusa Tenggara, East Nusa Tenggara and Bali (68.45% to 25%); Central Java and Yogyakarta (61.6% to 18.4%); the Moluccas and Papua (59.4% to 31.3%) and East Java (57.1% to 27.8%).
Even so, Kompas noted that Jokowi-Ma’ruf’s leads in those regions has slightly diminished in the past six months, such as in Central Java and Yogyakarta (from 62.8% to 43.2%) and East Java (from 50.8% to 29.3%).
Kompas’ survey was carried out between Feb 22-Mar 5 of this year, involving 2,000 randomly selected participants from all of Indonesia’s 34 provinces. The survey has a confidence level of 95% and a margin of error of +/- 2.2%.
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