So there was a big election in Jakarta yesterday. You might have heard about it. The official results of the governor’s race won’t be released until early March, but based on consistent data from numerous quick-count surveys, the first place finishers, incumbent Jakarta Governor Basuki “Ahok” Tjahaja Purnama and Vice Governor Djarot Saiful Hidayat, will be facing the second place finishers, Anies Baswedan and his running mate Sandiaga Uno, in a run-off election in April.
Why does there have to be a run-off election? Is it definitely happening?
Indonesian election law states that a candidate must get a majority of the vote in order to win an election outright. If neither Ahok nor Anies receives over 50% of the vote in the official vote tally, then it will automatically trigger a run-off election. With almost all quick counts results agreeing that Ahok received around 42-43% of the vote, unless the official count differs wildly, the run-off is happening.
The General Elections Commission (KPU) said it will announce the official vote results on March 4 while waiting to see if there are any lawsuits challenging the results in the Constitutional Court.
Will there be an official “campaign period” for the run-off?
The Indonesian election season features a designated period for official campaigning. For yesterday’s election, the campaign period began on October 28 and ended on February 11 with a “quiet period” before voting day.
But the KPU have announced that the run-off will not have any official campaign period. This is good news for Ahok, as incumbent elected officials are forced to take leave during the campaign period (something which he fought against before).
However, over 90 politicians from the House of Representatives are currently fighting to have Ahok barred from acting as governor while he remains a suspect in his ongoing blasphemy trial, despite the government’s decision that he was legally clear to return to office. Expect to hear more about “Ahok Gate”.
Will there be another debate?
Yes, in lieu of a campaign period, the KPU says the candidate pairs will have a chance to “sharpen their vision and mission statements” through one more debate. No possible date for the debate has been mentioned, but it is likely to take place in mid-April.
When will the run-off election take place?
If all goes according to plan, then on April 19. However, if there are any lawsuits over the results of yesterday’s election, KPU says the election could be adjusted to as late as June.
If there are no legal challenges, the official results are expected to be announced on May 5 or May 6.
Who is going to win?
Well, we don’t have a crystal ball, but the conventional wisdom is that the 16-17% of voters that choose Agus Yudhoyono will switch to Anies as they were primarily voting against Ahok, both due to his blasphemy case and because he’s a non-Muslim.
However, two months is a long time. Two months ago, in the wake of two massive rallies against him, few expected Ahok to perform as well as he did yesterday, let alone come out #1. So don’t count the incumbent out yet.
Reader Interactions