Weak Q3 puts Thai economy on slowest path in 5 years

Farmers harvest rice in a file photo. Photo: Torikai / Wikimedia Commons
Farmers harvest rice in a file photo. Photo: Torikai / Wikimedia Commons

The government this week downgraded its forecast for the economy, putting growth for 2019 at the slowest in five years.

With third-quarter results showing a meager 2.4% growth yesterday, government economists revised growth projections for this year to 2.6% overall – a sharp decline from last year’s expansion of 4.1%. The office cited negative factors including the trade war, Brexit and appreciation of the baht all for putting the brakes on exports.

It was the second GDP downgrade this year. In May, government economists lowered their sights to 3.8% from 4.5%. 

Growth of Thai economy slows to 5-year low

A shaky post-election landscape, global slowdown and trans-Pacific trade conflict are being blamed for Thailand’s slowest quarter since 2014.

Instead of growing, exports this year are expected to contract by 2% overall for 2019 – even more than the 1.2% previously predicted, according to Thosaporn Sirisamphand, sec-gen of the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council. 

And achieving 2.6% overall growth is not a given. Thosaporn said fourth-quarter results must reach no less than 2.8% to do so.

After lowering its Thai growth forecast to 3.5%, the IMF has now revised it down again to 2.9%.

Thailand’s economy has grown by an average of 3.5% since 1980, according to the IMF. It hit peaks in 2010 and 2012 with growth of 7.5 and 7.2, respectively. Meanwhile the most recent lull came in 2014 when growth only hit 1%.

Related:

Growth of Thai economy slows to 5-year low

 



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